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Extended Regression StopAndReverse – indicator for MetaTrader 4
The Extended Regression StopAndReverse indicator is based on some popular and rather useful programs, scripts and experts.
Extended Regression StopAndReverse
At startup the indicator automatically determines the timeframe, calculates two types of regression on the current timeframe and calculates the root-mean-square deviation of the price on the current range. First of all, the straight golden line – the first degree regression line which shows the direction and the state of the current true trend on the selected timeframe. It is clear that the greater the angle to the horizontal, the stringer the trend. Thus, it is possible to make certain conclusions regarding the status of the currency pair by the current position of the price relative to the regression line. For example, in the most general case, if the ray is upwards and the price is below the ray, that means a small retracement had ended recently, and it should be expected that the price naturally moves to the area above the regression ray within the continuation of the trend.
The support and resistance lines are located parallel to the trend at some distance from the golden line. They are, respectively, above and below the trend line. These are valid linear thresholds, as they are plotted based on the value of the root-mean-square deviation on the calculated range with the corresponding Fibonacci coefficient.
Using the value of the root-mean-square deviation and the corresponding Fibonacci coefficients, the indicator calculates the values of the adaptive «stop» and «stop/reversal» levels for the current price with the help of a special algorithm. These levels can be interpreted as instantaneous limit values of the deviation on the time interval of the last bar. These values are displayed by colored dots above and/or below the price according to the state of the currency pair. The dots shaded blue are drawn below the price, the brighter ones are «stop», the darker ones – «stop/reversal». The dots shaded red are drawn above the price, and also display the stop and reversal levels. For any value of the price at any bar the indicator always displays only two instantaneous value levels, but not all four. This helps to make the corresponding conclusions about the state of the trend. Important note – in case of a true breakout of one or both stop levels, when the close price of the bar exceeds the corresponding level, the indicator displays this event by reversing the instantaneous values. For example, if those were resistance levels before a breakout, then the indicator draws instantaneous support levels instead of them. Thus, if there is a reverse – it is at least a short-term change of the trend by a small retracement
The indicator uses the specified regression coefficient to calculate and display the non-linear channel, that is necessary for predicting the nearest future, and which also serves as the linear channel, i.e. to display the valid support and resistance levels, but which change dynamically and non-linearly over time. By default the indicator uses a coefficient of parabolic regression, i.e. 2.
The interpretation of the indicator values is relatively simple:
– For example, let the non-linear regression channel bend and cross the golden line of an uptrend from above. This is an exhaustion signal – a retracement or even a trend change is expected. If it crosses it from below – this is a signal of an increase in the trend strength. Respectively, everything is mirrored during a downtrend. It is also necessary to switch to a higher and smaller timeframes and to look at the situation there.
The price crossing the support or resistance lines:
– If the price leaps beyond the resistance during an uptrend, it is expected to return to the channel, but it is not necessary to close orders. If the price jumps beyond the support during an uptrend, a strong retracement is to be expected if it breaks out both stop/reversal levels. For a more accurate understanding of the situation it is also necessary to consider the state of the channel relative to the golden line of the trend and the values on the adjacent timeframes. Respectively, everything is mirrored during a downtrend.
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All channels are dynamically recalculated and redrawn with each new bar depending on the current market situation. Despite the rather complex math, the indicator does not load the CPU at all and does not require any special computer resources.
_RegressionDegree – degree of the non-linear regression; reasonable values – 2 or 3.
_K_DeviationChannel – deviation multiplier (not the Fibonacci coefficient!); allows to specify the multiplier for the deviation, reasonable value – 2, but someone might benefit from the value 3.
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Linear Regression System
Let me preface by saying that I�ve been trading Forex for 9 years or so and I have tried about everything! I�ve been breaking even for a long time. I guess that�s better than losing but I�ve been trading no better than 30% up or 30% down, like I said, for a long time. Too long to still be here looking at forums where I�ve spent too many hours of my life already. I don�t contribute too much but you would find my user name here and there in these forums very sporadically. I would guess that some of those reading may be in the same place as me and no doubt this has all been said before.
I�ve come to the point that the only thing that I really want to do is to follow my rules exactly, because if I do then I�ll know that forex is beatable and my system is profitable. How do you know unless you follow the rules and 9 years of this tells me that rule following is always not as easy as it sounds!
I�ve developed a system that I believe has a clear edge and it looks profitable. I thought if I exposed myself so to speak I would be under greater pressure to follow my rules exactly, and I believe honestly that this system can make money and I wanted to share it.
The system is simple, it uses only two indicators. Take profit rules call for a 1:2 Risk/Reward and my back tests show that it wins more than 50% of the time.
The first indicator I use is the Linear Regression Channel set in the following way.
Zoom out as far as possible on your MT4 chart. Now zoom in twice and set the Linear Regression Channel from the left side of the screen to right. Make sure all platform tool bars are closed on the left such as Market Watch or Navigator. You want the channels to stretch across the whole screen. As a result on the 4 hour chart you will be looking at a little under 400 bars or candlesticks or about 2 months worth of data.
The Regression Channels are our trend filter. They move with the chart as price progresses. When you check the charts you will readjust the channels to stretch forward to the current price and then readjust the back end to the back end of the chart. This will give you an up to date trend direction determination. A completely flat set of channel lines is a pretty obvious indication of flat market, at least within the last 60 day period.
At what point you decide that the angle of the channels is acceptable to determine a trend decision, either one way or the other, is really the only discretionary part of the system. Generally the steeper the angle of the channels the better chance of a follow through with price in your direction.
The second indicator, the entry trigger, involves the Stochastic Oscillator set to 28,8,8. Simply, if the trend direction is up then the entry trigger is a cross up of the Stochastic while it is below the 20 level, and I mean below by either the Stochastic line or the signal line of the indicator. If a cross up is that close to the 20 level, or 80 level for a sell, then I�m counting it as a valid signal. Those are my rules. It�s a reasonable trigger. You have to have some trigger to get in. I�ve seen this work pretty well and it gets early entries. Opposite for shorts.
Those entries should create the needed edge on the market.
Money management. I trade only 4 hour charts. As far as a stop loss I�ve found that �last swing points� often get taken out, by just enough. No doubt big banks are accumulating and wiping out stops near round numbers, swing lows and highs, etc. I always want good Risk/Reward because trying to win too often will kill your nerves and your account. I determined, and I�m testing, that a 100 pip stop you can get you a 200 pip win at the rate you need to be profitable. 100 pips on a 4 hour chart is wide enough to avoid stop hunts normally and again, allows price to follow through in the trend direction toward your TP. You�ll find that it will usually be set well away from a last swing point that could be a potential �big money� target. It seems to work that way. After I reach 50% profit I move my stop to breakeven.
I�ve back tested it on a bunch of pairs and the following seem best. Back testing is not real easy because you have to adjust the channels as you go along.
I trade EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY, GBPCAD, AUDCAD. I trade 3% per trade but I would strongly suggest less risk. I have seen regularly that 6 or more pairs have open trades at once exposing me to probably more risk than is advisable.
I do not have any stats, percentages etc. It�s very simple. You may find all kinds of improvements to do with it, but keep in mind that it�s designed to provide a certain edge to get in, and a certain edge to make more than you lose via a good RR. That�s all you really need in this market. The rest is psychology, and good luck with that!
I�m not posting this with a whole lot of experience with the system. I am posting this and saying that this simple manual system should be profitable based solely on the principles it is designed on, or maybe the market will only let you just break even!
Here are a couple of screen shots of current trades.
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